February 6, 2008

Demography   {Comments: 1}

Lots of new information today (to the point where it feels like Obama may have gotten the better of things yesterday), but what's been sticking in my mind is this post from Josh Marshall last night about how racism may be affecting the campaign. I don't know that I buy these particular arguments, but it's awfully troubling to think about, especially when you consider that this is only the Democratic primary. It also makes me wonder how much the Clintons' racist camapign strategy has sunk in with voters (it certainly seems to have sunk in with the media, who were quick to contextualize Obama's wins in the South early last night).

February 5, 2008

The beat goes on   {Comments: 0}

This seems like an odd time to turn up with a post (especially since I'm about to leave town for more than a week), but I can't help but jot down a few reactions to the super Tuesday results. For the Dems, both sides were probably looking to land body blows, but it appears that the race will remain quite close. You can make a case that at this stage a close race benefits Obama, who has been surging recently (tonight's results would have looked fantastic to the Obama folks three weeks ago) and may well have more cash. A lot of folks have been talking about his ability to make an impression when he has more time to campaign. But Clinton continues to intimidate, and I fear she'll have an advantage with the superdelegates. It's starting to look as if that's where this thing will be decided.

The Republican race looks like a done deal, and I'm sorry to see McCain win if only because he's the strongest player for the general, particularly if he's running against Clinton. But it's amazing when you look at the map how regional the candidates were, and I wonder what that means for the future of the GOP. These candidates are very different, both on policy and personality, and so those regional differences point to possible wedge issues or even deep fissures in the party itself.

One thing that kind of floored me is what a big effect the Asian vote seems to have had in California. This is a group that's been more or less ignored in the polling and the press (I do remember seeing one reference to "whites and Asians" in California), and they ended up being a key constituency for the night. I've never been to California, but it sure sounds like a fascinating place. It will be interesting to see what other demographic information about the various races turns up tomorrow.