October 7, 2003
Yasir Arafat apparently suffered a mild heart attack over the weekend, which raises obvious questions about who will replace him - questions which had already been raised by Israel's expulsion and/or assassination plans. Might be a dream come true for Israel, which could see the end of Arafat without the political consequences and Palestinian outrage. But depending on how much control Arafat currently has over the terrorist apparatus, it might also lead to more violence, with less opportunity for negotiation.
"with less opportunity for negotiation"
It's long been speculated that a fragmented Palestinian polity is just what Israel most wants, so that it can play factions against one another and avoid any wholesale transfer of land. Regardless of how much real control Arafat has now, no one else negotiates negotiates openly with the Israelis now. That will change.
You're right ogged, probably there will be more negotiation. What I meant though was that there will be less opportunity for negotiation at a high level because it will be less clear who holds the power. With Arafat, a lot of the power (though clearly not all) is centralized in one place. With someone else, it won't be at all clear what power they have, which will make serious negotiations more difficult.
When we see how the situation changes, we'll get a much better sense of just how powerful Arafat was.
Arafat's aides are denying he had a heart attack. Do the Palestinians have the equivalent of the old Soviet sad classical music on the radio?
The problem is that negotiations with Arafat have been completely futile for those who want peace. He refused to use the power he had to stop terror, and nobody else ever had that power, or has it now.
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