January 18, 2004

Handicapping the primaries  

Lots of people predicting tomorrow's results, which anyway have gotten a whole lot more fun to speculate on in the past week or so. A friend intimated yesterday that he thinks Dean may already be done, and I think there's a good chance he's right. Unless he completely obliterates the other candidates tomorrow, it'll look like he failed, and the other candidates can claim victory. I think Edwards has the most to gain here in terms of national attention, even if he's second or third (and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he polls on top). Any decent showing will make him competitive in NH, and he should hit his stride just in time for SC. The biggest loser is Clark, who really botched things by not even appearing in Iowa. George McGovern's endorsement is pretty pathetic as a consolation prize...

ALSO: Jesse of pandagon has an interesting concern about entrance polling and the particular way reporting can affect caucus results. And CNN/FindLaw has a good discussion of the merits of a caucus system.

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