Just a couple quick notes about tomorrow. Obviously Kerry looks good to win it, unless the polls are dead wrong (which, it must be pointed out, they have been in the past). The real question for me is whether Clark shows up or not. Second place, and he's a serious contender next week, with a shot at the nomination eventually. Less than a strong second and he's basically done - and this is where it gets interesting. With Clark in the race, Edwards's numbers aren't that impressive for next week, and he could wind up taking only South Carolina, leaving several states for Kerry. But with Clark out of the race, my guess is more of Clark's votes go to Edwards than Kerry, and Edwards has a chance to really contend for the nomination down the road.
Note I haven't mentioned Dean, I think he's done regardless of what happens tomorrow. I do expect he'll stay in the race for a while, and he may even pick up a state or two, but it's not even clear anymore what his message is, and the message that really motivates his support is really unavailable to him now because of the way things have come together. His votes won't go to anybody though - first of all because he won't leave the race, but also because his supporters will lose interest in a race between Kerry and Edwards or Kerry and Clark.
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