July 2, 2003

A new foreign policy?  

I'm completely fascinated by the Bush administrations attitude toward Liberia - they're obviously sending up trial balloons for an investment for forces, and it seems so straneg given what we've seen in the past couple years. After all, Liberia has no oil, no WMD program, and no apparent terrorist threat. Meanwhile, there's been a complete lack of interest in other African intervetions, notably in Congo where situation is much more complicated. And as far as I understand the neoconservative ideology, it doesn't really recommend committing blocks of American troops to West Africa.

Probably it has something to do with the fact that the US has a special relationship with Liberia, one which goes all the way back to that country's founding and about which very few Americans are even aware. (France, which has led the charge in Congo, has similarly deep relationships there.) But the Bush administration hasn't exactly been conscientious when it's come to keeping our relationships current. I'm guessing part of the reason Europe is calling for American intervention now is that we've trampled those transatlantic ties - an American intervention would line up closely with European policy and bring a renewed sense of solidarity on the international stage, thereby increasing European prestige and input. And this - as opposed to Congo - is the place where it can happen, owing to the historical relationship between the US and Liberia.

Bush, on the other hand, is probably more interested in domestic problems - this whole swing to Africa, just like his AIDS announcements in the State of the Union, is about alleviating some of the pressures associated with the Iraq situation by playing up the humanitarian side of intervention. This is especially important now that they're failing to find the WMD in Iraq - a consistent policy of intervention worldwide takes the steam out of that whole critique. Even more importantly - and I do think this is key for the Bush strategy - is that a Liberian intervention can play well with Black voters. There's an opportunity here to exploit the history of Liberia on politically favorable terms with a Black electorate that already tends to support Bush's security policies. I think they see this as a chance to tip the scales and create some votes in 04.

Obviously all this is fraught with danger, these kinds of peacekeeping missions are the hardest kinds, and there isn't much potential for dramatic successes a la landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln. But almost all of Bush's foreign policies seem to be calculated long-shots, so it fits. My guess is they're feeling pretty good after the early succsses in the Middle East, so it's time to take another gamble. Let's hope it works in the interests of the Liberian people.

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