March 26, 2003

Countergambit  

The latest on the war is that Iraqi military forces (not the Fedeyeen Saddam, who've given us the most trouble up to now) are mounting two large counteroffensives against coalition positions near Baghdad and Basra. In the latter instance, a large force of tanks apparently broke out of Basra and headed due south, presumably toward coalition forces in Kuwait.

To me, this is really ominous news. It seems to mean that Iraqi forces are operating under some kind of central control, probably timing the attack to take advantage of the sandstorms throughout the area at the moment. While it doesn't seem likely these forces pose a serious threat, this news doesn't bode well for the Republican guard surrendering. It's looking more and more like we'll be faced with a bloody urban fight for Baghdad.

UPDATE: It's turning out to be a highly coordinated attack. According to Sean Paul, the Iraqis managed to retake one of the Basra airports, and have some British troops surrounded. Very bad.

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