March 18, 2003
Eugene Volokh says the precedents set by our war in Iraq won't matter:
[P]recedents chiefly influence those who care about equality and consistency and those willing to defer to the precedent-setter's judgment. The Chinese government, to take Howard Dean's example, fits neither category. When China is deciding whether or not to invade Taiwan, it will focus on its own interests, not on being consistent with what other governments have done. And Chinese officials are unlikely to be influenced by America's judgment about when a war is just: They simply don't respect our views the same way that we might respect our own Supreme Court or Congress.I expect it's true that the Chinese will act in their own interests, but won't America's projected reaction figure into the equation somewhere? I suppose I'm making his argument for him here, since China will shocked and awed by the demonstration American military might... or maybe they'll be emboldened by our failure to deal with the DPRK?
Truth be told, my biggest concern about the precedents of this war isn't for countries like India and Pakistan. I'm much more concerned about how a successful war might reinforce destructive behaviors on the part of our good president. After all, the person he seems to be best at convincing is himself!
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