March 17, 2003

Shock and awe  

As the war gets closer, there are plenty for reasons for alarm. The heightened alert status and all of the 10 minutes Bush spent on interpreting yet-to-occur terrorist attacks are probably are probably the biggest surprises for the night. It only seems logical that terrorists would time their attacks to coincide with the beginning of a US invasion of Iraq; Bush seemed to think there might be Iraqi terrorists in the mix as well. There's also the potential for terroist attacks against any occupation force - probably the biggest threat, after Bush himself, to the fragile hopes for an Iraqi democracy.

Then there's Saddam, who - if he hasn't left or been ousted within the next 48 hours - will be up against a wall, with literally nothing left to lose. If he was willing to use chemical weapons against his own people, will he really hesitate to use them against American troops, or Israel, or whoever else hppens to be standing by? He may have other nasty surprises in store for us as well... I fully expect him to blow up his oil wells before the 48 hours have even elapsed. This would be tragic not only from the perspective of paying for the occupation/reconstruction, but also because of the huge impact burning oils wells would have on the environment.

Obviously it's alarming that we're going into this with our international reputation in tatters, against the will of the people of the world, not to mention the UNSC. This will have consequences for almost anything we do on the international stage, but it's particularly relevant for the reconstruction/occupation period, or if the war goes badly. To his credit, Bush seemed to set the disagreements aside in his speech tonight, but the damage here is severe.

All along, one of my biggest objections to this war has been the precedent it sets for US intervention elsewhere. I've never seen the possession chemical weapons as a legitimate casus belli, but the idea of throwing the vile Saddam Hussein out of Iraq and founding a dempocratic government there holds some attraction for me. Obviously we've failed to bring the rest of the world into the fold on this - which is why people like Tom Friedman and Josh Marshall have been backing away from their pro-war stances in recent days. But to me, the problem we're facing with war in Iraq is way bigger than Saddam Hussein or wmd. What we're really talking about here is starting a war where there is no imminent danger to us. Our leaders, based on information invisible (still!) to the public, have determined that Iraq poses a threat, and they are resolved to remove that threat by force. In the past, this kind of war has always been known as a war of aggression.

But a successful war in Iraq will be a vindication of this policy, which may lead not only to further military adventuring by the Bush admin, but increased (and justified) paranoia on the part of some already paranoid countries. I'm talking not just about North Korea, but about Pakistan, Iran... even India, China, and Russia. It's this threat of a rearranged balance of world power that I most fear. And it's this threat that has me torn about the war effort, even on the eve of the invasion.

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