Debatable  

Well, the concerns I posted below about the format turned out to be largely unfounded -- the candidates were allowed to make several exchanges, Lehrer ignored the guidelines about follow up questions, and the networks happily left the candidates on screen even while they weren't talking. Good for them. I agree with the conventional wisdom that, contrary to expectations, this was a very substantive debate.

As far as who won, I think it's debatable. There were so many moments when I cringed in frustration at Kerry's failure to respond to Bush in a clear and direct way. I do think he probably looked like a credible alternative to Bush, something he really hadn't been able to do before -- so I wouldn't be surprised if he got a significant bump in the polls. I also think his performance was more impressive than a lot of the Bush campaign's attacks might have suggested, which may help. On the other hand, as everyone seems to be reporting, the contrast in approaches is clear, and I still won't be surprised if Americans side with Bush.

UPDATE: Insightful commentary abounds: Andrew Sullivan, Josh Marshall, Daniel Drezner, a thoughtful response from Mithras at Fables of the Reconstruction. And I can't not link to this commentary from a blogger who was in my high school debate class. It's starting to look like a slight Kerry win is pretty much a consensus, with only a few outliers... it'll be interesting to see whether that effect snowballs over the next few days.

Also, Mithras mentions some camera shots of a huffy Bush while Kerry was talking and thinks they might have been a little unfair to Bush. But, according to this article, FOX News was in charge of the camera pool for this debate. I don't have much to say about the fairness of the camera choices, but I'm fascinated by the way the media seems to have flat out rejected a lot of the terms of the debate. I think it's an impressive statement on the media's part, and I hope this contemptuous attitude toward the candidates' prissy microsurgical approach continues.

Oh, and one more question: Bush's indignant response to Kerry overlooking Poland -- was that a deliberate allusion to Gerald Ford's Poland error in 1976, or just a cute coincidence?