I couldn't help but be disappointed by tonight's debate. I was hoping for a strong showing from Kerry, but I felt this was the weakest of his performances. I thought as the night went on he got stronger and seemed more comfortable, but he never quite had that sharpness we saw Friday. I think part of the problem is that his factual, multi-point answers don't really work stylistically and don't work from a policy wonk standpoint either. Either an ability to communicate more policy specifics or an ability to stylize things a little more would really put him on the next level. Doing both would make him Clinton.
Bush, by contrast, had his best debate of the three. His message has filled out a little since the first debate, and the education mantra got him out of a lot of uncomfortable spots (he was aided in this by Bob Schieffer, who allowed far fewer followups than we've seen in other debates). He had all the usual bizarre tics, but he managed to be likably self-deprecating at the end, and moreso than Kerry, despite his best efforts. Bush of course benefited from low expectations in this debate since it was about domestic policy.
So, I think Bush probably took this last debate, by about the same small margin that Kerry took the first one (I still say Kerry won dramatically in the second). I don't think this outcome will have a major effect on the polls -- most of what happened tonight should reinforce views already held, and there aren't that many votes changing sides these days anyway. Nobody did anything to change the general perception much.
If there is a negative effect for Kerry (and I kind of doubt there will be), I predict it will be because of declining enthusiasm within the Kerry base -- after all, he was supposed to shine tonight on the issues that really matter to Democrats. Instead, he gave a muddled and uninspiring picture of what the priorities are. If he's elected, I'll probably end up opposing the majority of the policies he talked about tonight!
MORE: Venkat at BTD mentions that "Kerry bringing up Cheney's daughter was low." I'm glad to see someone agrees with me on this point...
AND MORE: Wow, the CNN and CBS snap polls show a clear Kerry win, and ABC's shows a draw.
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