I'm getting sick of reading about how there are 33 ways the election could end in an electoral college tie. I'm sure there are 33 ways the world could end tomorrow, but that doesn't make it likely. Assuming there are only 11 states in play and none of these states elects a third party candidate, there are 2048 permutations -- only 33 of which would lead to an electoral college tie.
My sense is that while the election looks close now, there's a strong chance it will still break one way or the other before Tuesday, and the electoral college vote will magnify that shift. Maybe I'm wrong. Either way I don't nessarily think it's a bad idea to comtemplate what might happen -- after all, these possibilities could potentially devastate American democracy -- I just think we should have a care for the relevant probabilities when we do.
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