locussolus - The price of eggs

September 7, 2005

I have a general question about gas prices. When gas is cheap, the prices for regular, premium, and super (or whatever the classifications are -- I only buy regular myself) differ by ten cents (eg 109/119/129). Now that gas is expensive, these different varieties differ by exactly the same amount (eg 315/325/335).

Why is this the case? It seems unlikely that the process whereby these different products are differentiated somehow costs the same regardless of the cost of oil, since they actually differ in their relative content of octane, which I suspect is derived from the oil rather than from the process (!). Obviously prices aren't set solely based on supply, but it seems like some awfully pretty math would be needed for this constant ten cent relationship to arise spontaneously.

The related question is whether consumers should buy the more expensive gas when prices are higher, because that higher octane rating costs less not in absolute terms, but relative to the price of regular gas. I guess this depends on the relative efficiency of different octane levels, which I know nothing about. Anybody have some insight into this?

Comments

barrett {September 7, 2005}

For most cars a higher octane fuel will do nothing for you. 90+% of the cars in this country will not run better and may even run worse with Premium gas. Even Porsches run well on regular. USA Today had an article on this debate in 2003 - http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2003-07-30-premiumgas_x.htm

andrei {September 7, 2005}

my first reaction is that the 10 cent difference in price is not a cost difference, but an outcome of price discrimination.

That, however, still doesn't explain why it's the same no matter what the base price is. I think it has to do with the "fair price" theory: some economists started to argue that if merchants just raise prices in response to surging demand -- restaurants during a big event in town raising prices for example --, people will get pissed off and stop buying in protest. It's a non-economic explanation in some sense, but for me it's sensible nonetheless. For this 10-cent gas difference, if they jacked it up, people might be turned off.

Jonathan Versen aka "Hugo Zoom" {September 8, 2005}

Hey Paul,

I've wondered about that too. I don't have an answer, but I thought I'd share an anecdote:

For about 3 years I worked as a cashier at a convenience store. I usually worked weekends, and the gas truck always came on Sundays.

One Saturday afternoon the printer in the back room started beeping loudly, and when I went to investigate the display said "pumps low".

I called the helpline we call when something's broken, and the lady at the other end told me to shut off the regular pumps as we had run out, and told me to just sell premiumr until the truck arrived the next day.

"What about the mid-grade?" I asked her.

"You don't have mid-grade. If you did it would show up on my screen."

I told her that we most assuredly did have mid-grade, and she insisted that we only sold two kinds of fuel. We went back and forth for a while about this, my trying to explain that I wasn't trying to argue with her, I just wanted to know whether or not I should shut off the mid-grade as well.( I think she thought I was being a jerk to her on purpose because I had to put her on hold periodically to wait on customers.)

Eventually she said to just shut the mid-grade pumps off too, and that she'd send someone out to investigate,and sure enough, someone did come out.

"You don't have a problem, you have a two-tank system."

"A what?" I asked.

"You have a two-tank system. I haven't seen one of these in a while. The people at the help desk have software that doesn't allow for the older systems. You have only two tanks, and the pumps automatically blend the regular and the premium and the regular for people wanting mid-grade or 'plus'. Does your manager ever tell you to shut off the premium and just sell mid-grade and regular?"

"I don't think so. He's never said anything to me about it."

"That's good. It's one of the tricks of the convenience-store trade. Older stores, ones with two tanks, little-bitty mom n' pop stores sometimes "run out" of premium, in spite of the fact it's a slow seller, and just sell the regular and the plus. But they're only selling regular because they've got two-tank systems
and the plus will still pump if the premium's shut off, it'll just go a little slower. You don't ever do that, right?"

"No." And in truth, we never did that at my store. But it was interesting stuff to know.

Will Baude {September 8, 2005}

When I bought gas yesterday, the regular gas was 3.249 dollars per gallon, the medium was 3.349, and the premium was 3.459. It struck me as so weird I wonder if gas stations now just do it out of kindness to my fragile mathematic psyche.

paul {September 9, 2005}

Many people seem to think there's no benefit to premium gas. I intitially thought that premium gas had more octane (because of the higher octane rating), and since octane burns more completely than other hydrocarbons, I had assumed that using this gas was at least more environmentally friendly than the cheaper kinds (which I nevertheless buy).

It turns out though that the octane rating isn't even about the amount of octane, but rather a scale that's based on a performance comparison with an octane-heptane solution. This doesn't really shed any light on the question of whether the gas is more efficient or environmentally friendly, but I found it interesting.

I should also say that like Will I've seen any number of stations (and not just since the recent price uptick) selling gas that didn't fit into this pattern exactly -- but they seemed to be the exception rather than the rule.

The fair price theory is the most sensible-sounding explanation I've heard yet.

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