Personal computing for the masses
Greg at BTD writes at some length about Google's plans for world domination; he's pretty much convinced that Google is building the network-based, server-based future, and who wouldn't be? It's happening now, and it's been happening for some time.
But does Google really have such a big long term advantage here? Yes they have the biggest server-complex and yes they have a head start with some kickass applications, but if the model is for applications to be available through the internet, I see no reason why they can't be provided by many different companies. In fact, if anything this kind of setup would reduce the cost to a user of switching applications, making it easier for competitors to enter. So despite the fact that Google has a head start, I don't really see how a Google-dominated world happens. Obviously the whole advertising business model does respond to scale (since the company with the most applications knows the most about you, its advertising is more precisely targeted), but there are other ways of structuring an online business -- Flickr for instance seems to work well with a subscription model. Others wil follow suit.
Anyway my point, beyond agreeing with the premise about the general direction of things, is that there's no reason to presume we'll end up in a unipolar computing world in the future. Rather, the diversity and ubiquity of the internet should continue to foster widespread creativity even as the interface changes.
I agree that Google doesn't have an inherent advantage (except for the fact that they seem to be pretty skilled so far). But there will be an advantage to whoever manages to produce an attractive integrated suite of programs, much the way Microsoft has dominated with it's Office Suite.
Regardless, whether it's Google or something else, I think the network- and server-based future is almost inevitable.
I think we're agreed on that main point. And I also agree that there's a bundling advantage... although in my own usage (and in yours apparently) there's a lot of cross-platform frequenting going on. Let's hope that continues -- it would be the sign of a healthy (rather than monopolistic) market...
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