October 23, 2006

Barriers to entry  

Chris Cillizza takes a quick look at where Obama would fall into the pack of nomination seekers for 2008 -- note in particular his thoughts on how Obama would fare against Hillary Clinton (he says nothing about Obama's chances against Hillary Rodham Clinton however). There's no mention of Al Gore, but since Gore is the only other serious possibility with an anti-war credential, it seems like his entry could create problems for a candidate Obama.

It's interesting that at this point in a race the biggest factor is the makeup of the field. Obama spoke at the orientation for my incoming MPP class at U of C back in 2001, when he was still revving up his campaign for Illinois senate, and his biggest concern at the time was how to head off an entry by Carol Moseley Braun, because of the way it would have split the black vote. In retrospect, that might well have been the most perilous concern for his whole candidacy.

UPDATE: More (!) on Obama.

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