The picture of what direction Iraq policy will take after the election (regardless of the result) is still muddled. On the one hand there are the reports that the Bush administration is weighing different options -- recommendations by a Jim Baker study group, claims about Iraqi security forces' readiness to take over the job, the backpedalling on the phrase stay the course. At the same time, the past month has seen the military has launched a major operation to quell the city of Baghdad that would seem to be a last gasp for the defunct theology of "stay the course" -- and now that operation is apparently going to be reinforced, despite claims in recent days that it has already failed.
This operation in Baghdad is interesting especially because of the timing with respect to the upcoming election. The increased casualties in recent weeks have grabbed headlines in a way the war hasn't for some time, and yet they aren't the result of just gradually increasing violence -- we've actually stirred up the pot with a major attempt to bring the city under control. Given all the damage this bad news is doing to GOP chances in November, one has to wonder why it was launched at this particular time. But it fits in so well with Bush's approach in the past: putting all the chips on the table, changing the paradigm and raising the stakes right before an election -- this is the way Bush has always dealt with tough political situtations. The difference is that in this case, the gamble seems to have failed. It will be interesting to see how the administration responds.
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