Predictions  

With the polls all tied up, it's probably foolish to make predictions. Still, I'm pretty optimistic about things. No, we haven't seen the strong move toward one candidate or the other in the final days that was the conventional wisdom a couple weeks ago; but a tie today means Kerry has gained some ground -- however small -- and that is a good sign.

Also, it's hard for me to imagine that the Republicans can win the turnout war, at least among the GOP faithful. The Democrats I see are too energized to lose that battle, and the nature of incumbency and Bush's own flaws (as seen by "the base") handicap the Republican effort. The biggest danger might be that all those Democratic volunteers could lead to a sort of orange hat effect in the contested states, turning off swing voters instead of building turnout; but my understanding is that these efforts are targeted at likely Kerry voters rather than the undecided.

That we haven't seen a major shift in the polls obviously increases the chances of an anticlimactic Tuesday. I still think a 269-269 split is pretty improbable, but results exercizing obscure clauses of the constitution have always been less likely than the legal free for all we'll see if the electoral count and the vote count in one or more key states are close. To be sure, I don't expect things to be this close, but if they are, look for a legal battle that will destroy the new president's legitimacy, further polarize the electorate, and drag on for some time. And the worst case scenario? A concurrent major terrorist attack and the rapid disintegration of American democracy.

MORE: Matthew Gross sees a promising twist on that orange hat effect.